How to value a motorcycle: what actually sets the price

A used motorcycle's value comes from five things, and they matter in roughly this order: what it is, how old it is, how far it has gone, what shape it is in, and where and when you are selling it. Everything else — color, accessories, the brand of tires — is noise at the margin.

1. What it is: model and original price

Start from the original MSRP. Depreciation on motorcycles is far more predictable as a percentage of the new price than as a dollar figure, which is why the same curve works for a $6,000 Rebel and a $28,000 Street Glide. The category sets the curve: cruisers and touring bikes lose value slowly, supersports and motocross bikes lose it fast, dual-sports and a few cult models barely lose it at all.

2. Age: the curve

A typical street bike is worth about 80% of MSRP after its first year, then loses 8–10% a year for the next five, then 4–5% a year after that, and bottoms out at 15–20% of MSRP somewhere past year fifteen. Cruisers run above that curve, sportbikes below it. Past twenty-five years a clean example of a desirable model starts to climb again as a classic.

3. Mileage: relative to the year, not absolute

There is no such thing as high mileage in the abstract. A touring bike does 4,000–5,000 miles a year; a sportbike 2,500; a dirt bike almost nothing on the odometer. Judge the bike's mileage against what is typical for its age and category. Under half of typical earns a 5–8% premium; double typical costs 10–15%; triple costs 20% or more.

4. Condition and title

The four tiers everyone uses — excellent, good, fair, poor — span about a 45% swing from top to bottom, with most of it at the ends: excellent is worth about 8% over good, and poor is worth about 60% of good. A salvage or rebuilt title is the single biggest deduction on the list: 30–45% off, and many dealers will not take one in trade at any price.

5. Where and when

Region moves the number by up to 10% — California and the Southwest at the top, the Midwest at the bottom. Season moves it as much again in northern states: spring peak, November trough. If you are selling in Minnesota in December, the honest value is the one in March minus a discount for the buyers who aren't there.

Putting it together

MSRP × age curve × mileage adjustment × condition × title × region × season gets you within about 15% of market for most mainstream bikes. That is what our baseline engine does. The market engine then checks that figure against what your model-year is actually listed and selling for this month and shows you the three numbers — trade-in, private party, dealer retail — that tell you how to sell.